Conventions are one of the few opportunities a presidential candidate has to change how they are perceived by the broad American public, and with that change the trajectory of the election. It is clear that Romney has wasted his convention, neither the convention nor his choice of Ryan changed anything about the way he is perceived by the electorate. Instead both reinforced the story the Obama campaign has been telling about Romney. Romney's remaining opportunities to significantly impact the election are the debates, but with no groundwork laid for a new story of Romney's candidacy he faces an impossible task. With the polls at status quo Romney loses.
Meanwhile the Obama campaign is more and more confident that they have this thing sown up. It's hard to argue with them, though Rahm and Democratic insiders I've talked to warn of hubris. The natural growth of minority share of the electorate, combined with Romney's disastrous performance among Hispanics, put this election out of reach for the Republicans. The election appears to be close, and will be fought on the ground to the last day, but the Obama campaign has a margin for error and Romney is out of opportunities to take that away.
I would bet the Democratic convention organizers are shifting emphasis from engaging Romney to outlining what Obama intends to do with another four years. Obama may use convention starting tomorrow as an occasion to set a course for America, rather than to reintroduce himself to the public.
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