There was a chance, a few months back, that the economy would do Romney's job for him. Obama would have had real trouble winning with unemployment stuck at nine or ten percent. But unemployment dropped to the low eights, and that economic improvement is baked in to the election. Voters have made up their minds about Obama's economic performance: it's not great, but it's not disqualifying. The economy won't move enough in the remaining three and a half months to change that conclusion.
Obama's job has been to solidify his disillusioned base, disqualify Romney, then show America a vision of the future. In December of last year Obama signaled a shift from moderate centrism, bending over backward in an attempt to accomodate Republicans, to core Democratic values in his Osawatomie, Kansas speech. He began putting each of his achievements -- auto industry bailout, stimulus, financial reform, race to the top -- into a progressive context. Then, as the election year began, he touched each base: women, with Sandra Fluke and Planned Parenthood; African Americans with Trayvon Martin; Gays with his endorsement of gay marriage, and Hispanics with executive implementation of the DREAM act. In each instance Obama's appeal to his base was also an appeal to the basic decency of the American people. By June Democratic enthusiasm for Obama had recovered and outpaced Republican enthusiasm for Romney.
Romney's job was to win his primary, then convince enough Obama voters to support him. Obama won in 2008 with significant margins, and new voters, more and more of whom are college educated or Hispanic, are much more closely aligned with the Democratic party. Romney does not have the option of simply solidifying his base, he must convince Obama supporters to switch. But Romney is so beholden to an extremist Tea Party base, which hates Obama with a passion, that he is unable to craft an appeal to people who don't. He spent the primary moving right as he faced more and more extremist candidates.
There are only a few months left in the campaign, Romney is running away from his record as governor, and he wants his tenure at Bain to be off limits. So Obama has a free hand to define Romney as an un-American, job destroying plutocrat. This message is aimed squarely at the white working class, Obama's most dangerous weakness and Romney's only real opportunity take Democratic votes. Some Democratic observers are still skeptical of Obama's chances, but at this point the possibility of a Romney win looks more and more remote.
