The Latino hit

Obama's DREAM executive order is still reverberating through the campaign. It was well timed, just five months before the election, after the Republican primaries and after Republicans 'came home' and Romney's numbers bounced, just before a Supreme Court decision on immigration which would amplify Obama's message. Obama carefully used Sandra Fluke and Trayvon Martin to drive a culture war wedge between Republicans and most Americans back in March, then he endorsed gay marriage in May (giving a significant boost to pro-gay marriage efforts in a number of states). Immigration was the remaining big wedge issue. With immigration Obama was much less subtle. Each of these moves frame cultural issues in a way that puts Obama in a positive light to most Americans, and in a way that sends the Republican base into an alienating frenzy. Romney ends up caught between American values and an increasingly marginalized base. On immigration in particular Romney is effectively skewered and unable to respond coherently, while Obama opens up more opportunities in swing states, which generally have large and growing Latino populations. Conservatives tend to think of these moves as merely addressing the Democratic base, but in fact they present a stark choice to white Americans: do they want to turn back to the past or move forward into the future. Most of white middle class America is moving forward, and enough identify with Obama's vision of America's future to give him a sufficient share of the white vote.