Obama's prospects

I've been pessimistic about Obama's prospects, largely because of his abysmal economic record. But posts like this from London's conservative Telegraph persuade me that he is in good shape:

But there is also the distinct possibility of an electoral rout of the president if the economy goes further south. “Hope and change” might have played well in 2008, but it is a message that will likely ring hollow in November 2012, with an American public that is deeply disillusioned with the direction Obama is taking the country.

Gardiner's economic argument has some weight, but his political argument is fallacious. The Democrats 2010 loss was not epic, it was a mid-term, low-turnout loss. It seemed bigger because of the success of Obama's 2008 turnout, i.e. the turnout drop-off from 2008 to 2010 was larger than usual. 2012 looks good for Democrats because the Democratic base is getting energized for a number reasons, while the Republican base is becoming discouraged. One reason is the extremism of Republicans, nationally with the Ryan Medicare voucher plan and locally with unpopular governors and state legislators. Another reason is killing Bin Laden, which improved Obama's approval among older voters. A third reason is the effectiveness of the Obama campaign infrastructure.

Paul Ryan and the Republican small government agenda are deeply unpopular in polls, even among conservatives. The opposite of what Gardiner implies.

The muddled and contradictory arguments, and either ignorant or disingenuous poll reading, show me that there is no strong argument for an Obama loss. The economy will get worse, and the election will be close, but the infrastructure Obama is building and the collapse of the Republican infrastructure under Steele mean Obama wins a close election.