Medicare could win the House for Dems

A new Gallup poll, completed before Romney's 47% tape aired, show Obama with a growing advantage on Medicare, 50% to 44% in swing states, larger nationally. A new Reuters poll is showing Romney support collapsing among seniors:

Romney's double-digit advantages among older voters on the issues of healthcare and Medicare - the nation's health insurance program for those over 65 and the disabled - also have evaporated, and Obama has begun to build an advantage in both areas.

This kind of collapse, where a core constituency of one party becomes disenchanted with the party's platform, usually shows up as a collapse of party id and a growth of independents, then in a growth of the opposition party's id. And sure enough, that is what we see Republican id collapsing in Huffpost's party id trend:





This large change in party id of suggests a wave election, and Nancy Pelosi now puts the Democrat's chances of picking up the 25 seats they need to win the House at 60%. Her strategy? "Medicare, Medicare, Medicare."