Obama Mitt Newt

I'm emerging from pessimism about Obama's chances. There is a decent chance that our economy won't be significantly worse by election day than it is now, and a small chance that unemployment will be marginally better. His Osawatomie, Kansas speech shows him beginning to grapple with the real issues for people, and could mark a new, Democratic trajectory for his campaign. European trouble makes Obama look good, and then there is the Republican field.

At this stage the Republican candidate will be either Romney or Gingrich (hard to believe). Romney, who was doing a decent job staying above the fray, is being weakened by the primary and a long slog against Gingrich will really damage him. Between being tarred by the Republican field's inanity and depressing his own base, Romney may hand the game to Obama. Gingrich is the perfect dope for Obama's favorite game, rope a dope. Going by primary state poll numbers Gingrich may win it.

An ascendant Newt may indicate my long anticipated collapse of the Republican party as a serious contender in national politics. They may be facing a period in the desert, like the 80s Democrats.